The funded status of the 100 largest corporate defined benefit pension plans increased by $10 billion during January, as measured by the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index (PFI). The funding surplus improved to $109 billion during the month as a result of liability decreases and investment returns that exceeded expectations. Pension liabilities fell during the period due to a small increase in the benchmark corporate bond interest rates used to value those liabilities. As of January 31, the funded ratio climbed to 109.0%, up from 108.2% at the beginning of the year.
January’s 1.05% investment return lifted the market value of PFI plan assets by $8 billion to $1.327 trillion as of January 31. The monthly expected investment return during 2024 was 0.53% (6.53% annualized), as reported in our 2025 Milliman Pension Funding Study (PFS).
The projected benefit obligation, or pension liabilities, decreased to $1.217 trillion at the end of January 2026 from $1.219 trillion at the end of December 2025. The change resulted from a slight 1-basis-point increase in the monthly discount rate, from 5.46% for December 2025 to 5.47% for January.
Highlights
| $ BILLION | FUNDED PERCENTAGE | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MV | PBO | FUNDED STATUS | ||
| December | 1,319 | 1,219 | 100 | 108.2% |
| January | 1,327 | 1,217 | 109 | 109.0% |
| Monthly change | +8 | (2) | +10 | 0.8% |
| YTD Change | +8 | (2) | +10 | 0.8% |
Note: Numbers may not add up precisely due to rounding
Over the last 12 months (February 2025 to January 2026), the cumulative asset return for these pension plans has been 11.13%, and the Milliman 100 PFI funded status surplus has improved by $52 billion. Discount rate decreases of 14 basis points over that period partially offset the funded status improvement. The funded ratio of the Milliman 100 companies has increased from 104.7% to 109.0% over the past 12 months.
The projected asset and liability figures presented in this analysis will be adjusted as part of Milliman’s annual 2026 PFS, which will summarize and report on the most recent plan sponsor SEC financials. The 2026 PFS will also reflect reported pension settlement and annuity purchase activities that occurred during 2025. De-risking transactions generally result in reductions in the pension funded status as the assets paid to participants or assumed by insurance companies as part of the risk transfer are larger than the corresponding liabilities that are extinguished from the balance sheets. To offset this decrease, many companies engaging in de-risking transactions make additional cash contributions to their pension plans to improve the plan’s funded status. We expect to publish our comprehensive recap in April.
Figure 1: Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index — Pension surplus/deficit
Figure 2: Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index — Pension funded ratio
2026-2027 projections
If the Milliman 100 PFI companies were to achieve the expected 6.53% asset return (as per the 2025 PFS), and if the current discount rate of 5.47% remains unchanged throughout 2026 and 2027, we forecast that the funded status of the surveyed plans would increase. The pension surplus is projected to be $130 billion (funded ratio of 110.8%) by the end of 2026 and $153 billion (funded ratio of 112.8%) by the end of 2027. For purposes of this forecast, we have assumed 2026 and 2027 aggregate annual contributions of $25 billion.
Under an optimistic forecast with rising interest rates (reaching 6.02% by the end of 2026 and 6.62% by the end of 2027) and annual asset returns of 10.53%, the funded ratio is projected to climb to 121% by the end of 2026 and 137% by the end of 2027. Under a pessimistic forecast with similar interest rate and asset movements (4.92% discount rate at the end of 2026 and 4.32% by the end of 2027 and 2.53% annual asset returns), the funded ratio is projected to decline to 101% by the end of 2026 and 92% by the end of 2027.
Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index - January 2026 (all dollar amounts in millions)
Pension asset and liability returns
About the Milliman 100 monthly Pension Funding Index
For the past 25 years, Milliman has conducted an annual study of the 100 largest defined benefit pension plans sponsored by U.S. public companies. The Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index projects the funded status for pension plans included in our study, reflecting the impact of market returns and interest rate changes on pension funded status, utilizing the actual reported asset values, liabilities, and asset allocations of the companies’ pension plans.
The results of the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index were based on the actual pension plan accounting information disclosed in the footnotes to the companies’ annual reports for the 2024 fiscal year and for previous fiscal years. This pension plan accounting disclosure information was summarized as part of the Milliman 2025 Pension Funding Study, which was published on April 30, 2025. In addition to providing the financial information on the funded status of U.S. qualified pension plans, the footnotes may also include figures for the companies’ nonqualified and foreign plans, both of which are often unfunded or subject to different funding standards than those for U.S. qualified pension plans. They do not represent the funded status of the companies’ U.S. qualified pension plans under ERISA.