Paul’s area of expertise is in personal lines property and casualty insurance, especially in ratemaking and ratemaking applications. He is experienced in numerous aspects of personal lines actuarial work, including the following: pricing; developing classification plans using predictive analytics; catastrophe management; pricing hurricane, earthquake, and wildfire perils; incorporating reinsurance costs into rates; and data analysis and forecasting. Paul has extensive experience in both auto and property lines.
In developing classification plans, Paul has experience building and applying generalized linear models (GLMs); using consumer credit information within personal lines rating plans; pricing property lines using a type-of-loss (or by-peril) analysis; and creating territory definitions based on the latest credibility, smoothing, and experience-sharing techniques. Paul also has more than nine years of experience with California auto classification plans, and has expertise with the Proposition 103 regulations, including sequential analysis and the 2006 revisions to these regulations.
Since joining Milliman, Paul has had the opportunity to apply his predictive modeling skills to different types of projects and to various lines of insurance. Within personal lines, he has used GLMs to evaluate existing classification plans, implement credit scoring on auto and property books of business, and evaluate the performance of agents. In addition to personal lines, Paul has also applied GLMs to medical professional liability and mortgage insurance to enhance current pricing and underwriting strategies.
