We are pleased to summarize key year-end 2024 financial results for domestic U.S. General Aviation (USGA) admitted market insurers. This review includes data from the “Aircraft (All Peril)” line of business within the statutory annual statement obtained from S&P Global Market Intelligence, along with other sourced information. We excluded insurers with surplus line eligibility or domestication, which comprise the majority of the market for U.S. large aviation risk, such as airline and major product liability. As a result, we believe the data we reviewed provide the best publicly available snapshot for the performance of the USGA market. We have compiled various metrics for the industry, categorized by:

• Written premium
• Underwriting results
• Incurred losses

As a note, “incurred losses” within this report includes both loss and defense and cost containment expenses (DCCE). Additionally, we modified the admitted market’s incurred losses for select insurance companies that reported favorable development due to the takedown of reserves from the terrorist attack events on September 11, 2001 (9/11).

USGA written premium for 2024

The USGA admitted market reported $3.0 billion in direct written premium in 2024 (see Figure 1). This is a 2% increase from 2023 and contributes to an 87% cumulative surge from the $1.6 billion reported by insurers in 2018. This growth period represents the largest increase in written premium for the USGA market since the era immediately following 9/11.

Although top-line revenue was once again higher, the 2% overall market growth in 2024 is the smallest percentage-point increase since 2017. Fifty-four percent of admitted carriers who wrote at least $10 million in 2023 reported higher written premium in 2024, whereas over the past few years, the same metric has averaged over 80% which coincided with the market’s more notable expansion. The shrinking growth rate has continued beyond 2024, and our review of second-quarter statutory financial data shows that 2025 USGA premium volume is on pace with 2024 (i.e., 0% growth Q2 over Q2). We noted a slowdown in premium growth in last year’s review, and given the recent trends, we anticipate that full-year 2025 premiums could be flat compared to 2024.

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data¹ shows that although total estimated active aircraft has been consistent over the previous decade (see Figure 2), the active fleet is forecast to grow at 0.5% per annum through 2045. Not every segment is projected to grow at the same rate, as the FAA’s figures contemplate declines in the fixed-wing piston fleet, which are more than offset by increases in fixed-wing turbine, rotorcraft, experimental, and light sport aircraft fleets.

The FAA also gathers data regarding the estimated number of general aviation hours flown, which we have converted in Figure 2 to be the average hours flown per active aircraft. Ignoring the 2020 pandemic year, this ratio has consistently risen over the previous decade and is expected by the FAA to continue its upward trajectory through 2045 at a rate of 0.3% per annum. The FAA forecasts that fixed-wing piston average hours will decrease (due to an aging fleet), whereas turbine (including rotorcraft) and jet aircraft are the drivers behind the prospective overall increase.

Going forward, the FAA’s forecast of modest annual exposure growth in both active aircraft (0.5%) and total hours flown (0.8% = [1 + 0.5%] × [1 + 0.3%] − 1) may provide insight as to the source of future USGA market growth − rate changes in response to the claims environment rather than a significant change in exposure.

The USGA market has always represented a small slice (less than 0.5%) of the overall property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry, which is dominated by homeowners, private passenger and commercial auto, and general liability lines of business. Insurers with at least $1 million in annual aircraft premiums derive, on average, approximately 5% of their business from the USGA market, meaning that carriers in this space are principally multiline writers. In addition, as aircraft policies can protect against losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars, USGA insurers tend to cede a significant portion of business (approximately 50% of premium) to the reinsurance market. These risk transfer mechanisms diversify the concentration of aircraft perils on any given insurer’s book of business, which can serve to reduce overall solvency risk.

USGA underwriting results

Poor underwriting results in the late 2010s were the catalyst for the USGA market’s recent firming. From 2016 through 2020, the market lost approximately $700 million on an underwriting basis (i.e., excluding investment income), as displayed in Figure 3. In 2019 alone, the market lost nearly $300 million on $1.8 billion in premium. The aforementioned rate increases toward the end of this period of unprofitability guided the USGA market to small underwriting profits each year since. The 2023 and 2024 underwriting income represents a return to the profit level experienced by the industry in the years leading up to 2016.

For a longer-term view, the post-9/11 rate increases led to 14 consecutive years of underwriting profitability for the market (2002 through 2015). Thus, after nearly $700 million in losses between 2016 and 2020, the underwriting profits in 2021 through 2024 have demonstrated that profitability may once again be trending in the right direction for long-term sustainability. It should be noted, however, that the market’s 4% profitability level in 2021 and 2022 (measured as a percentage of earned premium) lagged materially behind the USGA admitted market’s post-9/11 historical average. After adjusting for premium growth, the 2023 and 2024 profit levels are relatively consistent with results from years prior to the period of underwriting losses.

From a market cycle perspective, multiple years of double-digit premium growth (see Figure 1) and a return to underwriting profitability (see Figure 3) are hard-market characteristics that typically entice new entrants into a market. Although some movement of companies in and out of various P&C lines of business is not abnormal, the USGA market includes some natural barriers to entry—most notably the need for a highly specialized underwriting team and expertise in placing sufficient reinsurance. Our review of the USGA market shows that of the 28 companies writing at least $10 million of premium in 2024, a quarter of these insurers entered the market after 2019 and have a combined 2024 market share of just 6%. Some of these market gains, however, are attributable to insurers that left the market in the last few years, perhaps due to underwriting losses in the segment or better opportunities in other lines of business. Given the available data, it does not appear to us that new insurers have flooded the USGA market to date.

Underwriting expenses, measured as a ratio to premium, have remained stable, between 25% and 30% for over 15 consecutive years. We do note, however, that the ratio has been slowly increasing since the 2021 nadir, which coincides with the recent slowdown in premium growth. Certain of these expenses—agent commissions, brokerage fees, and taxes—are tied to premium volume and are more stable in ratio form. The recent deterioration is therefore attributable to other acquisition and general expenses, which have been consistently rising over time at a rate that is now higher than the slowing premium growth (see Figure 4).

USGA incurred losses in 2024

Incurred losses reached a 22-year high in 2024, coming in at $1.7 billion and continuing a general trajectory that has witnessed losses more than doubling since 2014 (see Figure 5). As explained earlier, USGA written premiums and FAA-indicated measures of exposure held steady between 2014 and 2018. The rapid rise in incurred losses was therefore indicative of a worsening claims environment (and not increasing exposure), leading to calendar year loss ratios that were well above pricing targets and necessitating rate increases. Figure 5 illustrates this jump in calendar year loss ratios while showing improvements in the loss ratio since the high-water mark of 2019. Although the 2023 and 2024 ratios are generally consistent with the post-9/11 years through 2015, claim costs continue to pose a challenge for the USGA industry.

Rising losses are caused by increases in claim frequency and/or severity, so which component is driving the losses?

Claim frequency

National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) U.S. data² shows that both fatalities and severe injuries have generally trended lower since 9/11 (see Figure 6). Combined fatalities and severe injuries reported in 2024 amounted to only 498, representing the lowest total in the entire 43-year dataset. The use of NTSB head counts as a proxy for liability-based frequency is reasonable, and this data suggests that the frequency of liability-based events is not driving the decade-long increases to incurred losses.

Besides liability, USGA policies typically cover the cost of repair or replacement of aircraft due to adverse weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, hail, wind, and heavy snowfall. Weather-related losses are on the rise and may continue to increase in frequency, but alone, they do not explain the magnitude of the multiyear upward trend in incurred losses.

Severity on liability claims

Claim inflation continues to be an increasing problem for the P&C insurance industry, and the aviation market is not immune to these trends. Given the relatively high policy limits provided in certain general aviation segments, the risks of social inflation (e.g., an increased tendency to both broaden contract interpretations and punish those who cause injury to others) and runaway verdicts are of particular concern. U.S. juries have been awarding significantly higher sums in recent years, which then have a spiraling effect, leading to higher plaintiff demands and increased costs of settlements to avoid jury trials. USGA claims reserved using historical loss values may be under-reserved based on recent claim trends, which can impact profitability, as any adverse reserve development on claims in older accident years will suppress profitability levels in the current year.

Although we are not aware of a publicly available analysis specific to USGA claim severity trends, we have observed the unmistakable impact of social inflation within multiple liability lines of business, including commercial auto liability, commercial excess and umbrella, and medical professional liability. Of particular note is the timing of acceleration in these liability results, which closely mirrors the period in which USGA incurred losses saw rapid growth.

Severity on hull claims

Working with the same FAA data referenced above, we have observed since at least 2006 that the average age of USGA active aircraft has been steadily increasing each year by approximately six months. Fixed-wing piston aircraft, both single-engine and two-engine, comprise the oldest average fleet age and are also the primary drivers of the aging, as active aircraft in this timeframe were not retiring at a rate that offset new deliveries.

Newer-generation aircraft are made with composite materials that are much more expensive to repair than aircraft of previous generations. They require proprietary bonding techniques and specialized equipment, which significantly reduces the number of entities with the expertise or equipment to make the repairs. Recent inflation has impacted the aviation industry as well. Figure 7 displays the monthly increase in aircraft costs relative to 12 months prior.³ It should be noted that although the current inflationary level is lower than that experienced between 2022 and 2024, we remain in an environment above the levels experienced during the first several years of deterioration observed in USGA’s incurred losses.

USGA market: Looking ahead

The USGA insurance market had been highly competitive for a number of years, with USGA policyholders benefiting from reduced premiums and competitive rates until around 2019, at which point rates in the market began to harden. We see some indications that USGA insurers continue to progress through the market cycle—years of premium hikes beginning to stabilize, loss ratio relief, and a return to long-term profitability levels. However, the rising frequency and severity of weather-related events and the increasing uncertainty of the broader liability environment—both of which can disproportionately impact reinsurers’ bottom lines and future capacity—continue to be significant challenges for USGA insurers and may not be fully contemplated from a pricing perspective.

Although underwriting expense ratios have been relatively consistent within our review period, the recent slowdown in premium growth is putting pressure on the expense ratio, specifically general expenses and other acquisition costs, which for USGA carriers have risen nearly 50% since the pandemic. We tend to consider these “people costs,” and they have noticeably increased post-pandemic across the broader P&C industry as well.

All considered, our analysis indicates that the USGA insurance market has taken the necessary steps in recent years to return to profitability. Although premium growth may now be flattening, significant risks in both claim costs and reinsurance capacity have increased the uncertainty of this market and may ultimately lead to another period of rate increases.

Milliman is one of the largest independent consulting firms in the world and has pioneered strategies, tools, and solutions worldwide. We are recognized leaders in the markets we serve, including USGA for more than two decades, where we provide expertise in both reserving and rating plan development to assist clients with financial reporting and underwriting functions. Clients know they can depend on us as industry experts, trusted advisers, and creative problem-solvers. Contact Carl or Andy to learn more.

Carl Ashenbrenner, FCAS, MAAA is a principal and consulting actuary with Milliman.
Andy Kline is an actuarial manager with Milliman.

¹ FAA. (2025, July 29). General aviation and Part 135 activity surveys. Department of Transportation. Retrieved October 23, 2025, from https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/general_aviation.
FAA. (n.d.) FAA aerospace forecast: Fiscal years 2025–2045. https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/FY-2025-2045-Full-Forecast-Document-and-Tables.pdf.

² NTSB accident data retrieved October 21, 2025, from https://data.ntsb.gov/avdata/.

³ Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPS142.